Dallas, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

385
FXUS64 KFWD 111027
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures are expected this week with highs in
  the 90s.

- Low storm chances will exist for parts of North and Central
  Texas today through Thursday, then parts of eastern Central
  Texas over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 113 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/
/Today through Thursday/

The weak upper level low that brought a few storms to parts of
our East Texas counties yesterday will move overhead today. This
should in turn bring a bit higher coverage of diurnal showers and
storms across our eastern and southern counties this afternoon,
although pops will remain just slight chance. Temperatures will
also come down another degree from yesterday as heights fall
aloft, with highs in the mid to upper 90s areawide.

From Tuesday into Wednesday, the H5 low will become absorbed into
the upper level westerlies nudging down into the southern Plains.
As a result, pops will increase slightly throughout North and
Central Texas both days, albeit still be on the low side. The
westerlies will retreat back to the north on Thursday, with pops
subsequently going back down to slight chance. Temperatures may
lower another degree or so for Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
increased precip coverage and cloud cover, but start going back
up by Thursday.

As mentioned in previous discussions, no widespread severe storms
are anticipated this week. However, moderate MLCAPE/DCAPE and
inverted-V profiles shown on forecast soundings will likely allow
a couple storms each day to get strong with potential
downbursts/microbursts.

Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 113 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/
/Friday through Sunday/

From Friday into the weekend, the upper pattern will begin
shifting as a strong H5 ridge develops along the Gulf Coast and
builds westward into Texas. Models have been inconsistent on how
strong the ridge gets over us, which will determine how much
temperatures rise as well as the extent of any precip chances.
For now, guidance consensus is for just a slight increase in
temps with highs remaining near or slightly above normal, and
only low pops over our far southeast and east.

Shamburger

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with scattered low
and mid level clouds along with south to southeast winds up to 10
knots.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  77  95  78  95 /   5   5  20  10  20
Waco                95  75  93  76  95 /   5   5  20  10  20
Paris               95  74  94  74  93 /   5   5  20  10  30
Denton              97  74  96  74  96 /   0   5  30  10  20
McKinney            96  74  95  75  94 /   5   5  20  10  20
Dallas              97  77  96  78  96 /   5   5  20  10  20
Terrell             95  74  95  74  95 /   5   5  20  10  20
Corsicana           96  75  95  76  96 /  10   5  20   5  20
Temple              95  74  95  74  96 /   5   5  20  10  20
Mineral Wells       98  72  96  73  97 /   5  10  30  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$