Dallas, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

290
FXUS64 KFWD 220653
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1253 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A steady warming trend is expected through early next week.

- Many areas will see measurable rain on Tuesday (Christmas Eve),
  with the best rain chances near and east of the I-35 corridor.

- Wednesday (Christmas Day) will be rain-free, but storm chances return
  on Thursday and will linger through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

As of 12 AM CST, an upper-level trough axis was in place over the
eastern CONUS with broad ridging over the Rockies leaving North
and Central Texas beneath northwest flow aloft. Winds have shifted
back to the south on the backside of a surface high that extends
from Ontario to the Gulf Coast. With light southeasterly winds in
place, modest warm air and moisture advection tonight will keep
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer (mid/upper 30s) than
Saturday morning, particularly east of I-35. The coldest
temperatures are expected in northeast Texas (near or below 32 F)
which remains under the peripheral influence of the surface high
pressure. Daytime temperatures struggled to reach the 50s here so
even a few hours of moderate radiational cooling should send
temperatures tumbling into the lower 30s.

By daybreak a shortwave trough developing in northern
Montana/southern Alberta will begin diving southeast into the
Northern Plains, flattening the nearby ridge and pushing
downstream troughing further east. The net result is the northwest
flow aloft will transition to a more zonal pattern. The
associated lee surface low, combined with the surface high in the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, will lead to a steepening surface
pressure gradient and breezy southerly winds across the state
today. Isentropic ascent will increase as a result yielding dense
stratus tonight and warmer overnight lows. Highs today will range
from the mid 50s in the northeast to the mid 60s across western
North and Central Texas (W of I-35). Temperatures Sunday night
into Monday morning will be fairly mild for mid to late December
with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024/
Update:
The long-term forecast remains on track. Expect a gradual warm-up
into early next week with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low
70s each day. An increase in low-level moisture will lead to a
cloudy day Monday with patchy mist/drizzle at times during the
afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
increase late Monday night into Tuesday from northwest to
southeast with the passage of a cold front. The greatest storm
coverage will be along/east of the I-35 corridor during the day
Tuesday (Christmas Eve) with a low potential for a few strong
storms across portions of Central Texas during the afternoon.
Christmas Day will be dry across the region with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning Thursday, the day after Christmas.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Through Late Next Week/

With the return of southerly low level winds, a warming trend is
expected Sunday and Monday. Monday afternoon will see temperatures
10-15 degrees above normal, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s.
Additionally, a resurgence of low-level moisture will result in
warmer overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night, with low
temperatures in the 50s.

A surface low will eject from the eastern Rockies into the
Southern Plains late Monday as a mid-level trough digs into the
Central CONUS. Modest warm air advection ahead of the system will
result in the development of showers across portions of North and
Central Texas Monday evening. As the surface low drags a cold
front towards the area on Tuesday (Christmas Eve), showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage along and ahead of the
front. Many locations will see measurable rain on Tuesday, though
the best rain chances will be confined to areas near and east of
the I-35 corridor. At this time, we`re still looking at a low
potential for a few strong storms in Central Texas during the
afternoon. However, the parameter space does not particularly
favor an organized severe threat, as instability will be limited.
Embedded areas of heavy rainfall are likely given ample moisture
will be in place, but the progressive nature of this system will
preclude any significant threat for flooding.

The cold front will bring an end to rain chances from west to east
Tuesday night, with Christmas Day expected to be rain-free. There
won`t be a significant push of cold air behind the front, with
temperatures only a few degrees cooler (in the low to mid 60s)
Wednesday afternoon.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return on Thursday as
another system traverses the CONUS. While this set up could
potentially be more favorable for a low-end severe weather threat,
there are too many unknown variables this far out. Ensure you
monitor the forecast over the next several days as these details
come into focus.

Otherwise, mild temperatures will continue through late next week
with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s and morning lows in the
40s to low 50s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south-southeast winds are expected for the
duration of the TAF period. The evening sounding from Fort Worth
showed a very thin layer of moisture at ~5000 ft AGL. Though clear
skies prevail across most of the airspace tonight there is a
plume of VFR ceilings (BKN/OVC 045-060) exiting the Metroplex and
spreading north and east of the North Texas TAF sites at the
beginning of the period.

Persistent low level southerly flow overnight will continue to
transport Gulf moisture into the region with a return of VFR
ceilings around 4000-5000 ft AGL this afternoon and evening.
Further degradation of flight conditions (MVFR cigs) is likely
just beyond the current extended TAF period. Winds will also pick
up this afternoon as a surface low develops over the Northern
Plains with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20 kts
possible through the afternoon and evening.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  49  66  57  65 /   0   0  10  40  60
Waco                64  52  71  59  68 /   0   0  10  20  70
Paris               55  43  62  53  62 /   0   0  10  60  80
Denton              61  47  65  54  65 /   0   0  10  40  50
McKinney            58  47  63  56  65 /   0   0  10  50  70
Dallas              61  50  67  58  67 /   0   0  10  40  70
Terrell             59  46  66  56  65 /   0   0  10  40  80
Corsicana           62  48  70  58  70 /   0   0  10  30  80
Temple              66  50  72  58  71 /   0   0  10  10  60
Mineral Wells       66  50  69  53  66 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$